The months of Shrawan and Bhadra are usually considered the "season" for the Nepali stock market, often marked by increased trading volume, bullish trends, and high investor participation. Historically, this period has brought positive momentum. However, this fiscal year 2081/82, the market has shown weakness right from the beginning of the season.

Following the release of the monetary policy, the market experienced a short-lived rally for about two weeks — with NEPSE rising and daily turnover nearing Rs. 10 Arba. But over the past eight consecutive trading days, turnover has been in a downtrend, signaling renewed investor uncertainty.

On Wednesday, NEPSE closed with a minor decline of 1.94 points at 2832.06. Despite the limited index movement, turnover shrank significantly — from Rs. 9.33 Arba on Tuesday to Rs. 7.63 Arba on Wednesday.

Out of 13 sub-indices, only 5 closed green while the remaining 8 declined. The Microfinance sub-index led the gainers with a 1.34% rise, showing some resilience in an otherwise dull market.

Three stocks hit the upper circuit (10% gain) — WIN Nepal Laghubitta, Mahuli Laghubitta, and Trade Tower Ltd. Likewise, Samaj Laghubitta and Swabhiman Laghubitta rose by nearly 8%.

In terms of turnover, Ngadi Group Power Ltd. topped the list with Rs. 29.45 Crore, followed by Himalayan Reinsurance (Rs. 28 Crore) and Shivam Cements (Rs. 24+ Crore).

The consistent fall in turnover during a period typically known for bullish behavior raises concerns about the market’s health. Analysts warn that while monetary policy gave a short-term boost, long-term confidence still demands clear strategies and investor-friendly reforms.

Technical Analysis:

After testing the 3000 level, NEPSE faced resistance and began pulling back. Analysts interpret this as a resistance zone, and although past years have shown bullish trends around this season, current sentiment is under pressure.

It remains unclear whether this is a correction phase or the start of a new downtrend. Technically, the 2780–2800 level is seen as immediate support. If this breaks, further decline is expected, with potential for increased panic selling.

Broker Analysis:

Despite the decline, 6 out of the top 10 brokers had higher buy transactions, while 4 showed more sell activity.

Brokers 42, 49, 62, 44, 38, and 39 saw relatively more buying.
Brokers 58, 34, 45, and 57 had more selling.

By stock-specific activity:

LEC saw 2.1 lakh units bought via broker 58, accounting for 58% of its total buy volume today.
KPCL also had 91,000 shares purchased via the same broker.