WTO Lowers 2026 Global Trade Growth Forecast Amid Tariff Hikes

The World Trade Organization (WTO) has downgraded its forecast for global merchandise trade growth in 2026 to 1.8 percent, down from its earlier projection of 2.5 percent. The WTO attributed this decline primarily to the United States’ policy of increasing tariffs.

In its latest trade outlook released on Friday, the WTO stated that the “reciprocal tariff rates” implemented by the U.S. on August 7 would not only reduce American imports but also significantly impact the exports of its partner countries. This effect is expected to deepen from the second half of 2025 through 2026.

As a result, the WTO has also revised its 2025 trade growth forecast downward to 0.9 percent, compared to the 2 percent projection made in April. Even this revised estimate is far lower than the 2.7 percent growth that could have been achieved without the tariff hikes. The WTO noted that the impact is partly due to “frontloading” of imports by the U.S. ahead of the tariff increases.

According to regional analysis, Asian countries are expected to be the primary positive drivers of global trade growth in the coming year, while North America is projected to exert a negative influence in both 2025 and 2026.

WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala warned that the uncertainty in tariff policies is placing severe pressure on business confidence, investment, and supply chains, calling it “highly disruptive” to the global trade environment.