NEPSE Bull Market: Projections, Psychology, and Portfolio Perspective

— Market analysis based on historical patterns and Fibo-based estimates

In recent days, a frequently raised question among investors and analysts alike has been: “If the market is in a bull trend, what is the target of this bull run?” While seemingly simple, this question opens a broader conversation about the nature of bull markets, portfolio strategy, and the reliability of technical forecasting tools.

Why Bull Targets Might Not Matter Much

Market experts argue that pinpointing a specific index target during a bull run may be of limited significance. The reasoning is straightforward — in a market where only a few large-cap companies or newly listed influential stocks gain momentum, the index itself can move upward without widespread participation. In such cases, the overall index may rise while many investors feel left behind.

Hence, what truly matters is whether your individual portfolio is participating in the bull run, not necessarily whether the NEPSE index crosses a predefined numerical milestone. For those whose portfolio hasn't yet reflected the optimism in the market, there is often skepticism about the sustainability of the rally — an entirely psychological hurdle.

Technical Projections Based on Past Bull Runs

Despite the argument that index targets are secondary, historical data does provide useful frameworks to estimate potential market trajectories. Two such methods are being used for the current NEPSE rally:

1. Bull-to-Bull Growth Pattern

Instead of measuring from the bottom of a bear market to the top of the bull, this approach evaluates growth from one bull peak to the next. Historical data shows:

• The first significant bull cycle recorded a 115% increase.

• Subsequent bull cycles showed more conservative growth in the range of 60–70%.

This pattern suggests that even a moderate rally from the previous peak could still yield meaningful gains.

2. Fibonacci Retracement Extension

A more technical approach involves the Fibonacci Retracement tool, commonly used in technical analysis to identify potential support and resistance levels based on previous market swings.

• In previous bull markets, NEPSE has extended up to the 1.618 and even 2.618 levels of the retracement tool.

If this current bull follows a similar Fibo-based path:

• A 1.618 retracement level would place NEPSE at around 4100, representing a 28% increase from the last bull peak.

• A 2.618 extension would target 5525, indicating a 70% surge from the last high.

Caution: Patterns Are Not Promises

While historical charts and Fibonacci projections are valuable tools, they do not guarantee future performance. Markets are influenced by external factors — monetary policy, liquidity, global trends, political events, and sectoral performance. The projections serve as reference points, not certainties.

What’s more crucial is how investors align their portfolios to take advantage of sectoral trends, risk appetite, and liquidity cycles, rather than solely chasing the index target.

The NEPSE market seems to be in a confirmed bullish phase, but index targets — whether 4100 or 5525 — should not distract investors from the core question: Is your portfolio positioned to ride the bull? Whether the broader market meets historical Fibonacci targets or not, those with informed strategies and diversified holdings are more likely to benefit.

As always, historical patterns can guide expectations, but market behavior remains inherently dynamic.

Thank you. 💚