NEPSE Trend Before and After Dashain: Analyst Subash Chandra Dhungana’s Study

Nepali capital market analyst Subash Chandra Dhungana has shared a detailed study on the trend of NEPSE before and after Dashain. Posting on his Facebook page, he compared NEPSE index movements from 2077 BS to 2081 BS, analyzing the closing figures on Phulpati day with the 15 trading days before and after.

According to Dhungana’s data:

• 2077 BS: Before +30 points, After +158 points

• 2078 BS: Before –173 points, After +190 points

• 2079 BS: Before –86 points, After +111 points

• 2080 BS: Before –119 points, After +4 points

• 2081 BS: Before +30 points, After +70 points

Average (Five Years):

• 15 days before Phulpati: –63.6 points

• 15 days after Phulpati: +106.6 points

Dhungana highlights that in bullish markets, NEPSE has generally risen both before and after Dashain, while in bearish markets, it tends to decline before the festival but recovers somewhat afterward.

He argues that historically, those who buy before Dashain have had a higher chance of gaining in the long run compared to sellers. However, he also cautions that past trends do not guarantee future results.

For 2082 BS, there are still 17 trading days left before Phulpati, so investors must wait and watch how the market unfolds this year.

Note: Subash Chandra Dhungana is a well-known investor and analyst in Nepal’s stock market.